Welcome address to the International Policing Toward 2020 Conference
Commissioner Mick Keelty APM
The Hyatt Hotel, Canberra
Monday 19 November 2007
(Check against delivery)
Ladies and gentlemen.
Welcome to Canberra. It’s great to see so many people here on the first day of the ‘International Policing Toward 2020’Conference.
I’d like to begin by acknowledging the traditional owners of this land, the Ngunnawal people, and acknowledge their elders both past and present and their connection with this land.
Many of you have flown long distances to attend this conference – we have delegates from Cambodia, Laos, Holland, the USA, Canada and India, to name but a few - and I look forward to engaging in meaningful dialogue with you over the coming days.
You will hear from many experts in a broad range of disciplines, including crime, sociology, geopolitics, science and technology. Together we will discuss the shape of law enforcement in the future so we can plan our evolution to suit changing needs.
Over the next three days you will not only have the opportunity to participate in high-level dialogue concerning the key influences on crime and law enforcement through to 2020, but you will also have an invaluable opportunity to network with your colleagues and friends from around the world.
In this first decade of the 21st Century we have already seen many conferences centred around the theme of looking toward the year 2020. That makes perfect sense to me. As our new century matures and we begin to think about our future, it is obvious that we should begin to analyse matters of importance as we move toward 2020. The idea of perfect – or 20/20 vision – that will facilitate this progression is also irresistible.
There are some who will criticise any attempt to gain an insight into the future as an exercise in futility because the future is essentially unknowable.
I agree that it is difficult to know the future with absolute clarity. But I disagree with the claim that such an endeavour is a waste of time. On the contrary, meaningful discussion and analysis of the issues that may eventuate in the future can realise valuable insight into strategic planning. This is not a concept that would be alien to anyone here, I’m sure.
There are those who criticise law enforcement and related organisations for even engaging in future strategy. I’ve heard it said that policing is not equipped or even interested in exploring possibilities for the future.
Well let me pose a question to those critics. If policing is about crime prevention, and I for one think this is the role of police, particularly in today's security environment, then is understanding the future essential to the prevention of crime? I think it is, but I also think that if you look at how much the world has changed in the past 15 or so years, or even half of that time, in the past seven years I have been Commissioner, it is critical that we position ourselves to provide governments, stakeholders and the community with the best possible advice on law enforcement policy and strategies.
The intersection between law enforcement and intelligence has already thrown up challenges for all of us in the criminal justice system. But so too has the intersection between administrative law and criminal law. Should we wait for a solution or should we be trying to de-conflict and harmonise those systems and policies that have held our communities together for so long.
I have said many times before the police will not be the panacea for all of the world’s, all of the region’s or indeed all of our country's problems. But an efficient police organisation poised and prepared for the future can in fact save money and time for governments so that other priorities can be met.
The fact that we are all here at this conference trying to better understand some of the broader factors at work in shaping our world counters any argument against us engaging in future strategy.
As we will discover during the conference, the world in which we all live is in a dramatic state of flux. Communities and governments have come to expect that law enforcement agencies will ensure safety and that security prevails – not tomorrow, but right now.
The burden of responsibility for keeping us safe does not lie in the hands of our critics but sits fairly and squarely upon our shoulders and we need to equip ourselves intellectually as well as practically to face the future challenges.
We will only be successful at this if we address future challenges and embrace the opportunities which the future will inevitably deliver.
So what can you expect from this conference?
I think at the very least we are all going to be challenged by the enormity of the changes that we are still to experience as we move toward 2020, and beyond.
Over the coming days we’ll talk about some very important topics. I don’t want to pre-empt or influence the discussions that are about to take place, but the themes for this conference cover a diverse array of topics which all have one thing in common. They are the themes that will very likely have a profound influence on crime and law enforcement for decades to come.
The geopolitical landscape has changed dramatically over the past century. At the dawn of the 21st Century the impacts of globalisation are sure to define the world and how we inhabit it well beyond 2020.
We are witnessing the emergence of China and India as global powers. This transformation of the geopolitical landscape will have a profound impact on the future of policing as these two countries become economic heavyweights. Some say that Jihadists will be another form of global power.
Will the face of globalisation to become much more ‘non-Western’ in its appearance.
Asia has the fastest-growing consumer markets and an increasing number of world-class multinational corporations are already adapting their business practices to meet the cultural requirements of the region.
We’ve experienced a rise in the general sense of insecurity following an increase in terrorism-related events around the globe. This insecurity is as much psychological as it is based on actual physical threats, leading to concerns about job security and immigration.
International terrorism shows no signs of abating and experts believe most international terrorism groups will publicly identify with radical Islam.
We need to explore ways to counter feelings of alienation among young people or the socially disadvantaged who are vulnerable to recruitment into a terrorist group.
The challenge for law enforcement is to understand the rising opposition to globalisation and address how this could lead to terrorism sympathisers, financiers and collaborators.
Arguably one of the most important and difficult questions we will address in this conference is this: “What expectations will society place on law enforcement in 2020?”
To even begin to answer this question we need to speculate on what society might look like in 2020. It’s a difficult task, given we can explore it from a number of different perspectives, but we can certainly address future organisational values of a police force, the structure of a police force, civil society’s policing requirements, and even questions about what it means to be human.
Arguably, the science and technology revolution has had a greater impact on humanity than any other. It has heralded unprecedented advances in almost every area in which humans are involved.
It has impacted upon politics and the economy and in many ways it has redefined class structures.
When the latest technological advancement hits the market place, another is already on the drawing boards preparing to replace it. Humankind’s ability to keep up has become a daily challenge. In fact, there is a theory called the Law of Accelerating Change1 which states that various technological advancements in history have been accompanied by a dramatic change in world view, and the time it takes us to adapt is getting shorter. The theory also states that as a technology reaches its limits, a new technology will be invented which enables us to breach that barrier.
So, if the theory is correct, we’ve progressed from a time where it took tens of thousands of years to invent the wheel, to a time now where we’ll see something like the equivalent of 20,000 years of progress during the one hundred years of the 21st Century. To give you some perspective, this means the 21st Century could experience technological change a thousand times greater than that of the 20th Century.
Technologies such as biotechnology, nanotechnology and information technology will likely have an even greater global impact by 2020 than they do now and they will potentially even redefine what it means to be human.
By 2020 we might see the development of an intelligent robotic entity with the ability to interact in a meaningful way with society. This might sound like science fiction, but more and more people and organisations are giving credence to such a concept. In fact, a recent study commissioned by the UK Office of Science and Innovation’s Horizon Scanning Centre concluded that it was considered plausible that intelligent robots could exist and, within 20 to 50 years, demand the same citizen’s rights as humans currently enjoy. If such a concept were to eventuate it would place demands on the law enforcement community that we can barely conceive of today.
This conference will provide us with an opportunity to seek a more detailed understanding of international policing and examine those characteristics of policing that might begin to emerge or diminish as we progress towards 2020.
It is my fervent hope that this conference will prove to be the driver towards even better ways of delivering the safety and security our communities expect of us. We will be planting the seeds (of thought) for a safer and secure future.
I hope you enjoy the 'International Policing Toward 2020' conference and I hope you get to see some of our beautiful city during your stay.
I wish everyone a productive and enjoyable conference.
Thank you.1 Ray Kurzweil, The Law of Accelerating Returns. www.kurzweilai.net